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‘Buy more cards’ and invest more into the rest A weakness of the ‘spray and pray’ approach is the ‘pray’ element. You scatter money and hope things will work out, with limited follow-on investments in the successful ones. What if the ‘spray’ part (i.e. investment process) wasn’t treated like an investment strategy, but like a Texas hold’em poker game instead? In poker, you invest a tiny amount in ‘table stakes’ to see what hand you will be dealt. If it looks good, you then bet more to see the next card. In each subsequent round, you decide whether to give up and fold, or bet more – sometimes up to 50 or 100x your initial table stake as the game progresses. In other words, what if you treated the ‘spraying’ like a data-gathering opportunity? While this is time-consuming work and not suitable for casual angel investors, it is possible to use early-stage investments to gain inside intelligence on a company’s prospects, the founding team’s skills and the company’s development over time. This gives you an information advantage when making follow-on investments and maybe (just maybe) even helps in predicting the future. VCs still can’t predict the future perfectly.

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